Here's how Europeans and Canada will act if the US withdraws from NATO

The contingency plan, which is being discussed unofficially within the structures of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, envisages developing measures to guarantee Europe's ability to defend itself using existing military structures, even in the event of a complete withdrawal of the United States of America from the alliance or their refusal to fulfill allied obligations.

The main driving force behind these changes, as noted by the WSJ, was a shift in Germany's position. For decades, Berlin was the main opponent of ideas to create European defense structures, preferring a Euro-Atlantic structure to ensure an American presence in Europe. Berlin considers this the best guarantee of peace and balance of power on the continent.

However, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has now changed his position due to deep doubts about the reliability of the United States of America as an ally. According to sources, Merz has concluded that Donald Trump is ready to stop supporting Ukraine, and his policy within the alliance is no longer based on shared values.

Germany's change of position opened the way for other countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Poland, Nordic countries, and Canada, to also change their stance. These countries now consider the contingency plan as a "coalition of the willing" within the alliance.

The intentions to create a "European NATO", according to the publication, were first formulated last year. The process accelerated after Donald Trump's threats to take Greenland from Denmark, which is an alliance member. The issue has now gained particular urgency against the backdrop of confrontation caused by Europe's refusal to support American military actions in Iran.

In recent days, Donald Trump managed to call European allies "cowards" and the alliance itself a "paper tiger," adding that Russian President Vladimir Putin "also knows about it." Europeans, in turn, categorically refused to get involved in a war that the US started without consulting allies, without UN sanction, and without planning at the NATO level.

Павялічыць

Plans and Challenges

European leaders are now trying to reformat the structure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization so that it can function without American leadership. Secretary General Mark Rutte recently stated that the alliance will be "more Europe-led."

The transition process has already begun. The number of key command posts in the alliance occupied by Europeans is steadily increasing, and large military exercises — especially in the Northern region near the borders of the Russian Federation — are increasingly being conducted under direct European leadership.

However, the challenges remain immense. The position of Supreme Allied Commander Europe is always held by a representative of the United States of America, and Washington currently has no intention of ceding this post.

Among the practical issues that require resolution are: who will manage air and missile defense systems, who will select logistics corridors to Poland and the Baltic states, and who will oversee intelligence networks. Officials admit that without American satellites and missile attack warning systems, European defense remains highly vulnerable.

Participants in the process want to accelerate the production of vital equipment in areas where Europe lags behind the United States of America, including anti-submarine warfare, space and reconnaissance capabilities, aerial refueling, and transport aircraft. In the previous model, these areas were the responsibility of the US.

As an example of a new initiative, officials cite the recently announced joint project by Germany and the United Kingdom to develop low-observable cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons capable of striking deep into Russia.

Павялічыць

In addition to technical equipment, European countries have considered the size of their armed forces. Finnish President Alexander Stubb noted that "for national unity and security, there is nothing more effective than compulsory military service, so the return of conscription is considered one of the key elements of the new plan." Finland, which has the longest border with the Russian Federation, has not abandoned conscription for its army.

However, the most difficult problem is the nuclear shield. Only the United States of America possesses the capabilities to provide nuclear deterrence for the entire continent. Amid Donald Trump's threats, Germany and France have begun unprecedented negotiations on the possibility of extending the French nuclear umbrella to other European countries. This signifies a fundamental shift in the understanding of European security.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius acknowledges that discussions within the alliance are difficult, but they are necessary for the organization to become more European while retaining its transatlantic essence.

In fact, if the Trumpists withdraw from NATO or weaken NATO, Europeans will act in analogy with the "coalition of the willing" that formed to support Ukraine after the cessation of US aid. Canada, whose sovereignty Trump infringed upon, also wants to coordinate its actions with the Europeans.

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