"Ukraine Is Not Losing, Russia Is Not Winning." Anne Applebaum on the Turning Point in the War That Changes Everything

Photo: Dmytro Smolienko / Ukrinform / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Anne Applebaum identifies three main theaters of military operations where the Russian narrative of Russia winning has completely collapsed.

Ground Front. A "Dead Zone" 30 Kilometers Wide

Contrary to stereotypes about the slow advance of Russian troops, since the beginning of spring 2026, during its offensive, Russia has lost more territory in Ukraine than it has gained.

Applebaum explains that the front has turned into a transparent zone, completely controlled by drones and artificial intelligence.

The front line has become a grey zone, 30 kilometers wide, where everything within this zone is visible to drones. This means that any Russian truck, tank, or soldier is instantly identified and can be easily targeted.

This allows Ukraine to eliminate and wound up to 30,000 Russian soldiers monthly. Kyiv is close to its goal of destroying more occupiers than Russia is capable of mobilizing as replacements, the author writes.

Long-Range Warfare. Collapse of Russian Air Defense and Oil Crisis

Putin continues to terrorize Ukrainian cities with ballistic missiles, taking advantage of the shortage of Patriot system missiles.

However, the Kremlin is silent about the catastrophic depletion of air defense resources within Russia itself.

This has allowed Ukrainian drones to systematically target Russian oil and gas infrastructure deep in the rear. According to experts, Russia's oil refining capacity has already been reduced by at least 20%, and almost all major refineries in the central part of the country have stopped or significantly reduced production. This has already created a serious fuel crisis in the occupied Crimean peninsula.

Psychological Warfare

Moscow's confidence in a quick victory has been definitively shattered. Applebaum cites two examples of the psychological breakdown of Russian society: a shortened military parade in Moscow due to fear of Ukrainian drones, and black smoke over an oil depot in St. Petersburg on the very day of the opening of the international economic forum.

The Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov (former head of the HUR), noted in a comment to the journalist:

"They [the Russians] cannot understand why they should continue fighting and why they are being hit now, because they were told they would win, and Ukraine is nothing."

Applebaum refers to leaked secret documents from the office of high-ranking Kremlin official Sergey Kiriyenko.

They outline a plan for how the authorities intend to "sell" the end of the war to Russian society: declare victory and call the Russian army "the most combat-ready in the world"; present minimal territorial gains as colossal success; state that Europe has suffered an irreversible economic blow, and Ukraine is about to collapse.

According to Budanov, it was precisely to ensure only one official position in the country during this pivot that the Kremlin preemptively blocked Telegram in Russia. In his opinion, negotiations initiated by the Trump administration could lead to a ceasefire along the existing front line as early as this year. Despite Volodymyr Zelenskyy sending a letter to Putin proposing direct negotiations, the Russian dictator has so far publicly refused a meeting.

Even if the hostilities drag on, Applebaum predicts the creation of a new status quo. As technology develops, the "transparent zone" on the front will expand from 30 to 50-65 kilometers.

As a result, the front line will transform into a de facto demilitarized zone, similar to the one separating North and South Korea, patrolled by drones.

This will become a temporary border that no one recognizes but that will be impossible to move.

For Ukraine, this will not be an absolute victory, but it will be Putin's main defeat, because his key goal — to wipe Ukraine off the world map — was never achieved.

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