Russian billionaire, Gomel native Melnichenko published a programmatic article describing a possible new order in Europe

«Great wars do not begin where the first shots are fired. The front line is merely the point where accumulated pressure finally breaks through to the surface,» Andrei Melnichenko begins his article. This, and not only this in his text, is intended to justify the actions of Russia's current leadership and the imperialist war in Ukraine. However, Melnichenko's statements also contain deviations from the Putinist paradigm, which forces us to carefully consider: what exit from the situation does big Russian business see.

Even before the start of hostilities, writes Melnichenko, the foundations of international relations are being destroyed: the language of mutual security, trust in undertaken obligations, a common understanding of what is permissible, and the ability to perceive the other side as part of a common system, rather than as an enemy to be eliminated.

The Russian billionaire believes that the war in Ukraine is precisely such a case. In his opinion, it «consists of several layers: the tragedy of peoples who have lived for centuries in a common historical space; the conflict between Russia and the West — a dispute over territories, alliances, historical memory, and the future of the world order.»

However, as Melnichenko asserts, the true cause of the crisis is even deeper. He suggests that the modern world has lost the mechanism that once allowed great powers to coexist within a single security system without denying each other's right to their own interests.

«When this mechanism breaks down, moral formulas begin to replace the security architecture, and punishment is mistakenly perceived as a strategy,» he writes.

«I am not a politician or an ideologue. (…) I try to describe the world as a physicist — as it is, not as one would like to see it,» notes Melnichenko and explains that complex systems do not react to political statements: they work as long as key connections are maintained, and collapse when supporting elements are damaged.

«A flow is like a river: it cannot simply be declared abolished. It can be redirected, but it will not disappear,» writes the businessman, citing the Chernobyl disaster as an example.

«This is proof that a complex system containing an enormous amount of energy does not forgive miscalculations or arrogance. A chain of small events can escalate into a catastrophe even before anyone realizes what is happening.

This experience does not allow me to treat the nuclear factor as an abstraction; it is an absolute limitation, beyond which any task loses meaning. Where the consequences are physically irreversible, such an approach is the only acceptable form of responsibility,» he notes.

When Sovereignty Becomes a Problem

Melnichenko dedicates the next section of his article to the concept of state sovereignty. He calls the main paradox of modernity the fact that the need for international security has never been so high, yet the mechanisms that should ensure it have, on the contrary, weakened.

In his opinion, as a result, there is an increasing temptation to view the opponent's sovereignty as a source of threat. The author himself takes the opposite position.

«The destruction of sovereignty does not solve the security problem. It eliminates the only mechanism through which this problem can be solved,» argues Melnichenko.

He emphasizes that Ukraine is not just a battlefield between Russia and the West, but a sovereign state, society, and political will that has paid an enormous price for the war. In this, Melnichenko boldly goes beyond the position of Putin's Moscow. It was the denial of Ukraine's and other former Soviet countries' right, including Belarus', to independently choose their path of development and independence that became the ideological foundation for the attempt to seize them.

At the same time, in his opinion, Ukraine's long-term security also cannot be built on a complete denial of Russian sovereignty.

«Lasting peace requires sovereignty on both sides — not because they must love each other, but because only sovereign entities are capable of concluding agreements that will be honored.

Russia today possesses sovereignty: it has made and continues to make its decisions independently. This is not a value judgment, but a descriptive one. Russia has defined its vital interests, possesses the material basis to defend them, and bears the consequences of its own decisions,» he writes.

At the same time, the businessman believes that a significant part of the Western discussion about post-war Russia is dominated by the idea of significantly limiting or even eliminating its sovereignty. He acknowledges that such logic has its historical foundations – after World War II, Germany and Japan were integrated into the Western security system, which for a long time deprived them of revanchist aspirations.

However, the author emphasizes, this comparison does not work in Russia's case.

«Russia is not a defeated state whose government has collapsed. But the underlying hope is the same: a country deprived of strategic autonomy will eventually accept the rules of those who deprived it of that autonomy.

This approach contains a profound error. Sovereignty is a necessary condition for any stable global security architecture. (…)

Lasting peace cannot be concluded with someone who does not bear genuine responsibility for their own decisions. Such an agreement will only be a temporary pause between new phases of conflict,» asserts Melnichenko, and he analyzes four scenarios for Russia's development after the war, which, in his opinion, are being discussed in the West.

The first is a humiliated Russia, pushed to the periphery of Europe. According to the businessman, this would only create preconditions for new revanchism.

The second scenario is Russia's transition into China's orbit. Initially, this might seem like a beneficial alternative to cooperation with the West, but in the long term, Melnichenko believes, Moscow would simply exchange one dependency for another.

According to him, in such a case, Russia risks becoming a market for Chinese goods, a source of raw materials, a transit corridor, and a buffer between China and the West. However, even for Beijing itself, such a dependent Russia would not be overly beneficial, as this could provoke the creation of an anti-Chinese coalition.

The third possible scenario is the collapse of the Russian Federation. Melnichenko calls it the most dangerous, as it could lead to a struggle for nuclear arsenals, resources, and borders.

The fourth option is the country's transformation into an isolated «fortress,» which would live under conditions of constant mobilization and siege.

«Science, technology, capital, and public trust do not develop under conditions of perpetual emergency. Such a model does not end the war — it makes conflict a way of organizing the state,» argues Melnichenko.

«The forms are different. The systemic outcome is the same,» summarizes the billionaire.

Why a War of Attrition is Not a Strategy

After analyzing four possible negative scenarios, the author moves on to what he considers the main mistake of contemporary Western policy. In his opinion, betting on Russia's prolonged attrition is incapable of leading to either lasting peace or a new security system.

He asserts that negotiations are only possible when both sides are confident that their opponent is truly capable of defending their position to the end. If one side believes that the other is bluffing or unable to carry out its threats, diplomacy loses its meaning.

Melnichenko notes that in the Russian perception, the war in Ukraine is not only a conflict with Kyiv, but also a confrontation with the entire West, waged with Western money, weapons, and technologies. It is this vision, according to him, that determines Moscow's decisions.

Analyzing the causes of the conflict, the billionaire points out that in Moscow's eyes, the war in Ukraine is a confrontation with the entire Western world. In Melnichenko's view, the roots of the problem lie in the disregard for Russia's security interests after the end of the Cold War, which ultimately led the Kremlin to conclude the futility of further diplomatic efforts.

The author believes that the Western strategy of "exhausting" Russia is erroneous and dangerous. He argues that the formula "support Ukraine for as long as it takes" is merely a way to postpone difficult decisions about a new European security architecture.

Moreover, the businessman emphasizes that prolonging the conflict increases nuclear risks. Nuclear deterrence, as Melnichenko notes, requires open channels of communication and rational decision-making centers, not emotional pressure that can push a complex system towards irreversible catastrophe.

«Real systems do not work in such a way that they can be safely brought to the very brink and stopped precisely where it is politically convenient,» he warns.

Melnichenko identifies sovereignty as a key element of the future security system. He argues that external attempts to limit or destroy Russian subjectivity do not solve security problems, but only destroy the only mechanism through which lasting peace can be achieved. According to the businessman, stable agreements can only be concluded between sovereign states that independently bear responsibility for their own decisions.

Examining internal processes in Russia, the billionaire draws attention to the transformation of the Russian business and intellectual elite. He notes that sanctions have destroyed the illusion of politically neutral globalization, in which entrepreneurs, scientists, and other representatives of "new Russia" had believed for decades. According to Melnichenko, this presented them with a choice: complete emigration or the creation of their own self-sufficient system within the country. Melnichenko, however, omits an important point: there were no sanctions until Russia tried to seize Ukraine and put Europe under its control.

Harsh external pressure, the billionaire argues, forces Russian business and society to unite. Large businesses investing in Russia become guarantors of its stability. The logic of creation is now directed inward, to correct past imbalances and create a system that will protect its people and values independently. Thus, Melnichenko tries to convince the West to lift sanctions — we conclude that they are indeed working and limiting Russia's development.

The Appeal of Predictability

Summarizing his arguments, Melnichenko asserts that a "sovereign" Russia, as he calls it, will not necessarily be comfortable for other countries. However, in his opinion, in the long term, this is the best option compared to any of the alternatives.

«The choice for external players is not between a friendly and a hostile Russia. It is between a Russia whose behavior is predictable and a Russia whose future path is unknown. In the world that is now forming, predictability is more important than sympathy,» writes the author.

According to the businessman, the discussion about what Russia should become is indeed inevitable. However, he believes it should be conducted only after the war ends and exclusively within the country itself.

Here Melnichenko again omits an important point: no internal pluralism, no space for discussions within Russia remains. The fate of Alexei Navalny and the criminalization of even calling the war a war demonstrate this.

Billionaire Melnichenko, meanwhile, calls for accepting Russia as it is now.

«The choice facing the world is not between love for Russia and hatred for it, between punishment and forgiveness, between moral clarity and political cynicism. It is a choice between two types of future: one in which great powers once again learn to respect each other's sovereignty, and one in which each tries to turn the others into objects of control. The second path has already brought us here.

Most importantly, we must step back from the abyss. Only then can we ask how we got here and how to arrange the world differently. This work belongs to the next generation. Our role is to ensure they have something to work with,» concludes Melnichenko. This sounds like a hint at the threat of nuclear apocalypse if Russia is not allowed to seize what it still wants to seize — which today is the rest of Donbas, but who knows what "sovereign Moscow" will call its own tomorrow.

Andrei Melnichenko is 54 years old. He was born in Gomel, but his entire life has been spent in Moscow; he has no ties to Belarus and does not consider himself Belarusian. He is the founder of EuroChem and SUEK, companies operating in the chemical and coal-energy industries.

• 1
• 4
• 19
• 6
• 0
• 0
• 5
• 0