Statkevich urged Lukashenka not to shoot down Ukrainian drones if they fly towards Russian repeaters

Mikalai Statkevich. Photo: politician's social media

Statkevich writes that his attitude to Zelenskyy's ultimatum demanding the removal of Russian repeaters is clear — "who in Belarus would like it if our country were shelled by drones and missiles."

But the point is not the attitude, but to prevent the escalation of the conflict, he says, because Ukraine, Statkevich believes, will carry out an air strike on those repeaters if they are not removed.

He says that repeaters for guiding drones are an important part of Russia's air strike infrastructure, as Russia currently cannot use Elon Musk's Starlink satellite system to guide drones.

"The placement of Russian repeaters on one's territory is direct and obvious complicity in Russian air strikes. It is very likely that these repeaters were used for strikes on Kyiv and the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. Distances from our border to Kyiv, and even more so with the use of the towers mentioned by Zelenskyy, allow this. Therefore, the neutralization of such repeaters is vital for Ukraine. Moreover, Kyiv has the opportunity to refer to international law and the exercise of its legitimate right to self-defense. And also to recall Belarus's role in the Russian 'blitzkrieg' in 2022," he writes.

He adds that Moscow is unlikely to allow the "local 'sovereign'" to remove its repeaters or, at least, move them further away from the Ukrainian border. "Especially since it is interested in involving Belarus in the war on its side," Statkevich believes.

Therefore, most likely, a strike on the repeaters will be carried out, he adds.

But the main thing now is that the Ukrainian strike should be limited only to these repeaters and not lead to an escalation of the conflict and the involvement of our country in the war, Statkevich believes.

"The Belarusian regime will have to respond to the strike if it happens. It will be difficult to limit ourselves only to diplomatic démarches, because such a response will cause a negative reaction from the disappointed Kremlin and its propaganda. But this reaction can be endured. If we respond with a strike for a strike, then the border between Ukraine and Belarus, most of which runs through the Polesie swamps, complicates ground military operations.

As a result, the conflict from the beginning or after some time will inevitably turn into an exchange of missile and drone strikes. A few dozen Belarusian "Polonaises" and Russian "Iskanders" will run out quickly. Even if Moscow shares a few hundred more "Shaheds" (or "Geraniums"), this exchange of blows will very quickly turn into a stage of unilateral strikes by Ukraine, because its advantage, even over Russia, in the mass production and precise application of medium and long-range drones is becoming obvious.

And there is nothing to say about Belarus. I am not even referring to the risk for the regime in arming a large number of adult Belarusians in the event of a conflict "on the ground." But, with massive air strikes from Ukraine, real threats will appear not only for Belarusian industry and infrastructure, but also for all citizens of our country. Such threats are better avoided," Statkevich writes.

What should the Belarusian authorities do to prevent a negative development of events?

He believes that if they simply stall for time, there is a probability of encountering a sudden strike, which increases the risk of human casualties.

"I think that, in any case, it is necessary to establish a system for notifying citizens about an air threat in the strip from the Ukrainian border to these repeaters, to oblige local authorities and rural population in this strip to equip bomb shelters, even if in the basements of apartment buildings or even in their own cellars," he writes.

In addition, he believes that there is no need to try to shoot down Ukrainian drones and missiles with Belarusian air defense systems.

"Anti-aircraft missiles are few and expensive, and most importantly — why shoot down what is flying towards Russian repeaters? Only so that the debris of those Ukrainian drones or Belarusian anti-aircraft missiles fall on the heads of the civilian population?

And it is also not worth using Belarusian electronic warfare systems — it is unknown where a missile or drone shot down off course will fly.

In short, if Putin refuses to remove his repeaters, Zelenskyy will remove them. The local authorities can even tell the latter — remove them, we will not interfere.

Just don't strike further. Like in that anecdote: "Oh, what the heck — hit it!"

For Belarusians, the main thing is to preserve their fellow citizens and not allow our country to be drawn even deeper into a foreign war," Statkevich writes.

• 16
• 0
• 1
• 1
• 0
• 1
• 0
• 0