Tsikhanouskaya: If there are free elections, I will not participate in them. But now is not the time to compete

— Recently, some dialogue has emerged between the US and the Belarusian regime: in exchange for the release of political prisoners, Washington lifted some sanctions against Belarusian enterprises. Perhaps you can share your assessment of what motivates Washington and Minsk to engage in this dialogue?

— First of all, I want to say that we are very grateful to our American partners for their efforts to release political prisoners, because these are people who have been imprisoned for more than a year. At the moment, we have data on approximately 800 political prisoners who have not been released, but the real number is higher. About 500 prisoners have been released over the year.

The goals of President Donald Trump's administration and Alyaksandr Lukashenka are different. Donald Trump's administration is interested in the humanitarian aspect. As you know, Special Envoy John Cole is very involved in the process of releasing political prisoners — for them, it is a humanitarian mission. I am immensely grateful to President Donald Trump, who publicly demands the release of political hostages — that is how he very correctly calls the people imprisoned in Belarus.

Firstly, for Alyaksandr Lukashenka, this process is a way to show the world: "Look, I am not a pariah, the American president himself talks to me." Secondly, he strives to sell political prisoners as dearly as possible.

This shows that sanctions work, Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime is suffering because of sanctions and therefore very much wants them lifted. I just want to emphasize that Alyaksandr Lukashenka is not releasing political prisoners — it's more of a forced deportation.

In any case, the release of political prisoners is a joint result of American diplomacy and the strong, firm, principled position of the European Union. Without this strong position, which has lasted for six years, Alyaksandr Lukashenka would not have had the motivation to release political prisoners.

While the Americans are making efforts to release people, we ask Europe to maintain a strong, principled position, not to start communicating about lifting sanctions. Now is not the time for that.

The Belarusian issue is not only related to a humanitarian mission; it is also related to security, to the war in Ukraine and the use of Belarusian territory to intimidate neighbors.

Therefore, we propose such a formula: American sanctions can be used to release political prisoners, and European Union sanctions — to liberate the country itself, so that irreversible systemic changes occur in Belarus.

Think about it, even if all political prisoners are released, and Alyaksandr Lukashenka remains, balloons will fly into Lithuania, migrants will gather at the borders, and the threat of nuclear weapons or Iskanders will emanate from Belarusian territory. This means the threat from Belarus will not disappear. A democratic and free Belarus is in Europe's interest. Therefore, now is not the time to give up, especially given the dynamics of the war in Ukraine. Now is the time to strengthen sanctions, to exert even more pressure.

Alyaksandr Lukashenka hopes that Europe will give in and follow President Donald Trump's policy, as if to say, if America softens sanctions, then Europe should also soften them. No, let's separate — one is the humanitarian aspect, the other is the political component and the security factor.

— Europe's strategy towards Belarus varies from attempts to draw the Minsk regime into judicial cooperation to isolating the regime through sanctions. But neither of these methods works. Now some mixed signals are being sent: on the one hand, the sanctions regime is in effect, on the other hand, French President Emmanuel Macron calls Alyaksandr Lukashenka. When you communicate with European leaders, what long-term strategy towards Belarus do you propose?

— Look, it is absolutely clear that Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime is illegitimate, which is why sanctions were applied. This approach is supported by civil society, independent media, human rights defenders, political prisoners, and people living in emigration.

When talking about a long-term strategy, the most important question is how to pull Belarus out of Russia's sphere of influence and return it to the ranks of free, democratic, sovereign countries in Europe. For many years, Belarus was seen either as a human rights problem or as an appendage to Russia, as a gray zone.

But Belarus is a security problem for Europe. Without a free Belarus, there will be no secure Europe. That is simply an axiom. Therefore, the West must build its strategy on several pillars. First, pressure must be maintained on the regime, because sanctions work excellent. Alyaksandr Lukashenka can pretend that this is not the case, but they do work. Second, support the Belarusian people, not the dictator.

In general, let's stop thinking about Belarus, associating it only with Alyaksandr Lukashenka. I understand that everyone has gotten used to it over thirty years, but it is very useful to see behind the regime the people who declared their aspiration for democracy in 2020 and later. We ask for investment in our society, independent media that counter Russian and Belarusian regime propaganda, as well as in culture, education, and democratic institutions.

We also ask to maintain Belarusians' connection with Europe, because Belarusians need to have an alternative to the Russian world.

For thirty years, Alyaksandr Lukashenka has been dragging our country into Russia's embrace, but we must hear from the European world: "You are part of us, we will fight for you, as one fights for a family member, we will help cut the umbilical cord from Russia, because we need you as a country, as a nation." We would like to hear this, because it would give energy to our society.

Our goal should not be to help Alyaksandr Lukashenka in his difficult period, not to save him from Vladimir Putin; the goal should be to save Belarus from Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin. These should be the strategic points of our allies.

Yes, President Emmanuel Macron called Alyaksandr Lukashenka, but what's important is that we were informed beforehand. This means our partners are not playing games under the rug.

We were informed that the purpose of the call was to warn Alyaksandr Lukashenka not to use Belarusian territory for any escalation. It was not a legitimization of the regime, recognition, or normalization of relations; it was simply a warning, because there was a possibility that Belarus was preparing for potential provocations.

— Do you think it's possible that in the dialogue with Washington, Alyaksandr Lukashenka acts not only in his own interests but also for the benefit of Russia, testing sentiments to soften sanctions not only for Minsk but also for Moscow?

— The connection between Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin is symbiotic; they need each other. Initially, before the harmonization of sanctions, the design of sanctions was leaky. Most sanctions against Russia restricted its imports [from the West], and in the case of Belarus — exports. Therefore, Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin exploited these loopholes. Russia is indeed interested in having sanctions against Belarus lifted.

But Alyaksandr Lukashenka, as always, plays a double game — while maintaining loyalty to Russia, he tries to lure Europe. Only again — there's no point in speculating about what Alyaksandr Lukashenka wants, what he thinks, or how he intends to survive.

We must think about how to save Belarus from Alyaksandr Lukashenka.

Frankly, I am very grateful to Lithuania, which perfectly understands the picture of how Alyaksandr Lukashenka has been playing with the West for these 30 years: he applies repression, the West reacts, then he uses charisma and improves relations with the West. Then again repression and again improved relations. Alyaksandr Lukashenka constantly plays this game. He hopes to outlive the leaders of other countries. There is a Russian term that describes people who come and quickly leave — "временщики" (temporary figures). Alyaksandr Lukashenka is such a supposedly eternal leader who hopes, waits for another Western politician, another leader, who will not be guided by values, to come.

Now our task is to stop this vicious cycle, to get rid of the regime. Alyaksandr Lukashenka is weak, people do not support him. Ukraine is also putting pressure on Belarus, and one day Vladimir Putin will not come to save him.

At the moment, in the European Union, we do not see any desire to change policy towards Belarus, and for this, we are very grateful. Of course, Alyaksandr Lukashenka's lobbyists have intensified their activities in Europe. In this case, the position of Lithuania and Poland, especially Lithuania regarding the transit of potash fertilizers, is very important. The lifting of US sanctions on potash fertilizers does not give Alyaksandr Lukashenka as much benefit as convenient transit.

We, of course, asked our American partners not to pressure European countries — Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Latvia — to change their policy on potash fertilizers just because it is convenient for Alyaksandr Lukashenka.

He must release all political prisoners, stop repression within the country, stop providing Belarusian territory for Russia's military infrastructure that threatens Ukraine and Europe, stop any provocations against European states. Then we can talk about changing policy. Now he wants to get everything himself, giving nothing.

— Speaking about the transit of potash fertilizers, the US sent a letter to Poland, Ukraine, and Lithuania with a not-so-direct proposal to allow transit through their territories or at least consider it. In the case of Lithuania and Poland, general European Union sanctions are in effect, prohibiting the transit of fertilizers at least until February of next year. What does your gut feeling tell you about what will happen in February of next year? Do you think the sanctions will not be lifted? Poland and Lithuania seek to keep American soldiers on their territory, so if the issue of sanctions is linked to soldiers, Lithuania and Poland might decide differently.

— I don't think that the US position on potash fertilizers should be taken as an instruction for Poland, Lithuania, or Ukraine. All these countries have their own security interests. These countries understand better than others what it means to live next to Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime, feeling the consequences of Russia's launched war machine.

Any discussions about lifting sanctions on potash fertilizers must be linked to specific conditions: release all political prisoners, stop repression, cease supporting Russian aggression, end hybrid attacks such as sending migrants across the border or balloons, and allow changes to happen in Belarus itself.

A month ago, I was in Kyiv, and during our bilateral meeting, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he does not intend to allow the transit of potash fertilizers through Ukraine.

I would propose that other countries also show solidarity with Ukraine. Otherwise, softening sanctions will only strengthen the regime and contribute to the Russian war machine.

Yes, I understand that countries have their sensitive issues, but I believe that countries neighboring Belarus understand the future threats of this decision. I am confident that no one will believe the promises Alyaksandr Lukashenka makes, because he breaks them very easily.

— You mentioned that Lithuania is among the countries that perfectly understand the threats and modus operandi of Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime. Now our government is changing, and there is indeed quite a bit of discussion about policy towards Belarus. For example, future Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius believes that sanctions are not an end in themselves, that they should change the behavior of an authoritarian regime, but in this case, they are not changing it. While he has not proposed changes yet, it can be clearly understood between the lines that he is not sure if sanctions are the best way to influence the regime. So, I want to ask, are you confident that Lithuania's position on sanctions against Belarus will not change or is not changing?

— First of all, I would like to thank President Gitanas Nausėda, Minister of Foreign Affairs Kęstutis Budrys, Speaker of the Seimas Juozas Olekas, Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė, and Lithuanians for their clear position regarding the regime. I wish the future Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius to form a strong government and lead it firmly, and I also hope that the new government will continue a principled policy towards Belarus, as this includes Lithuania's national security interests.

Lithuania's security cannot be complete as long as Alyaksandr Lukashenka remains in power in Belarus. The regime has already turned my country into a threat to its neighbors. I can list endlessly: this includes providing territory for Russian aggression against Ukraine, creating Russian military infrastructure in Belarus, announcing the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, provocations at the borders. As long as Belarus remains at the disposal of the Kremlin dictator, Lithuania will not be safe, and threats, blackmail, and provocations will continue. For Alyaksandr Lukashenka, this is a way to survive, and for Vladimir Putin, it's a way to pressure Europe. That is why a democratic, sovereign Belarus is not only our goal, Belarusians, but also a guarantor of security for Lithuania.

I hope that the future government of Lithuania will maintain policy continuity. We greatly appreciate Lithuania's long-term clear, principled, and value-based position. But, of course, Alyaksandr Lukashenka's lobbyists test the internal unity of the European Union countries and Lithuania, raise various historical aspects, and try to destroy the image of the Belarusian democratic forces. However, we must think about long-term goals.

— You say you hope that the new Lithuanian government will continue its principled and clear policy towards Belarus. But do you yourself believe that it will continue and nothing will change?

— Lithuania is my second home. I and other Belarusians rejoice at Lithuania's support and expressed solidarity. In historical times, we lived in a joint state — the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. I simply believe in the Lithuanian people, Lithuanian politics, I believe that Lithuanian leaders understand the strategic importance of a free and democratic Belarus.

I understand that different people have different opinions. The President, the Speaker of the Seimas, or the Minister of Foreign Affairs may view the situation differently, but in democracies, it is not one person who decides. Our task is to convey our understanding to Lithuanian society, government representatives, or the Seimas, why Lithuania's clear position regarding Belarus corresponds to Lithuania's own security interests. We do not decide for Lithuania; we only want to present our point of view.

— Your main office was previously in Vilnius, however, in response to Lithuania's decision to reduce the level of protection for you, you moved the main office's activities to Warsaw. Some time has passed since the relocation to Poland; perhaps you can tell us about this decision? Also, this is the second time you have had to change your country of residence — it must not be easy. Perhaps you can share your feelings about this?

— As I have already said, Vilnius and Lithuania have become my second home, a safe haven for me and my family. Of course, it was quite difficult to leave Lithuania, where I lived for five years. My daughter has lived longer in Lithuania in her life than in Belarus. But I don't want to create political drama. We managed to find a balance between Warsaw and Vilnius, adapted our work to the new reality.

Lithuania has done a lot for Belarusians: not only did it accept democratic forces, provide security to those who were forced to leave, it also accepted representatives of our civil society, representatives of independent media, and thousands of ordinary people. We, Belarusians, will be eternally grateful for this.

At the same time, our activities have expanded, and Warsaw is one of the most important centers of Belarusian civic activity, where many former political prisoners, media representatives, and similar individuals reside. Therefore, we established a full-fledged office in Warsaw, and the office in Vilnius also continues its active work, as the accreditation of the diplomatic representation was maintained.

For example, the office in Vilnius not long ago organized a meeting between Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys and Belarusian civil society organizations; an information point of the Council of Europe for Belarusians was also opened, in which I myself participated. Recently, during our national holiday near the Seimas, we raised the white-red-white flag, and I meet with many partners and politicians who come on working visits to Lithuania.

Speaking of private life, my family is also adapting. Of course, changing countries is always difficult. It was similar when I had to leave Belarus. I am glad that we managed to cope with the situation with dignity: we continue our work in Lithuania, we took a new step in Poland. The most important thing is that Lithuania's position [towards the Belarusian regime] remains the same.

— In your opinion, is Lithuania's decision not to continue your protection at the level it was, a political one?

— It's hard to say. We understand that with the new government coming to power, it reviewed its approach to security. I understand that. I cannot dictate to the government what to do or what not to do. Our task was to react to the new situation as effectively and painlessly as possible.

— As the leader of the Belarusian opposition, you rose after the rigged presidential elections in 2020. A considerable amount of time has passed since those elections, and one hears voices that your mandate has supposedly disappeared. You probably hear such opinions too. Since it is impossible to hold free elections in Belarus at this time, how do you think the Belarusian opposition forces could regain a mandate for leadership?

First and foremost, I am grateful to international partners that they do not recognize Alyaksandr Lukashenka as the legitimate leader of Belarus, even after the so-called elections of 2025.

The idea that my mandate has supposedly disappeared is mostly spread by KGB propaganda. They try to shift the conversation from Alyaksandr Lukashenka's illegitimate status after 2020 to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's name. This is a very clear signal that they understand that Belarusian society no longer sees Alyaksandr Lukashenka as a leader, that people are not giving up and continue to fight.

In our current situation, it is impossible to hold free and fair elections. Frankly, working daily, I feel the support of the Belarusian people, but this is not support for my person, but for the ideas, for the vision of a free and independent Belarus, a European Belarus where elections are held and which supports Ukraine.

I can clearly state: if free and fair elections are held, I will not participate in them. Therefore, there will be no need to compete; there will be enough room for all politicians, everyone will be able to gain political points. The field of activity is simply gigantic, and new faces need to be brought onto the arena so that people can choose in the future.

But now is not the time to compete; now we must maintain unity to defeat the dictator.

— What do you think will happen in Belarus if Alyaksandr Lukashenka is no longer there? He is quite elderly and subject to natural biological processes. From your point of view, what will happen in Belarus then? Can the regime, with its structure, hold on without Alyaksandr Lukashenka? Or will the process of democratization begin immediately?

— Usually, all dictators eventually collapse. This happens when everyone least expects it. Our task is to prepare for that moment. Alyaksandr Lukashenka can disappear for many reasons.

But the regime is not just Lukashenka; it is a system he built for thirty years. We know that even people within the system are tired of Lukashenka. Therefore, we offer individuals belonging to the system discussions, negotiations, and working together to preserve Belarus's sovereignty. Lukashenka is already a played card. He doesn't care about Belarus, he doesn't care about the nation, national identity — he just wants to politically survive.

People around him also whisper about what will happen after Alyaksandr Lukashenka, which is why he is so terribly afraid of having a strong figure near him who could become his successor. He rarely promotes anyone. Many believe that a leader of the regime will be appointed, but Alyaksandr Lukashenka is terribly afraid that attention will shift from him, so he tries to show how strong and brave he is. But, when the time comes, there are people around Alyaksandr Lukashenka who will be able to sit down and talk. Perhaps together we can hold free elections, initiate necessary reforms, change the Constitution, and everything will have to be done very quickly.

At this time, Alyaksandr Lukashenka can survive thanks to Russia's support. However, due to the new dynamics of the war between Ukraine and Russia, due to Ukraine's policy towards Belarus, he finds himself trapped. We must maintain pressure.

Of course, there are people within Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime who will support him to the end. Most of all, we are talking about the security apparatus, those people who were involved in repression, torture, and Russian aggression against Ukraine. In the new Belarus, they will have to answer for this.

But now we need to put pressure on the regime, strengthen democratic forces, and make people from the nomenclature think about the new steps we are proposing. In times of change, there will be only two paths — Russia and Europe. We must achieve that the path offered by Europe is stronger for the Belarusian people than the Russian one. For this, we are working with our European partners.

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