Russia may be preparing an armed provocation against Poland — Onet
There could be several scenarios. One of them involves Belarusian soldiers.
Training of Russian soldiers of the "Dnipro" group, June 2026. Illustrative photo: Russian Ministry of Defense
The USA has warned Poland that Russia is planning an armed provocation against it. The goal of the Russian provocation could be to escalate tensions and force Western allies to suspend aid to Ukraine. It could be carried out within several months, sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki stated, claims Witold Jurasz, a columnist for the Polish publication Onet.
Provocation scenarios could include a drone attack on critical infrastructure facilities, such as power plants, or simulated air strikes, which would force Poland to activate its air defense systems.
One Polish intelligence source noted that in the most extreme scenario, a hybrid attack in the border region or an armed invasion involving Russian or Belarusian soldiers could occur.
Russia could present this as an accidental incursion into Polish territory due to GPS malfunction or as a dubious rescue mission to evacuate a helicopter that experienced a malfunction.
In such a situation, Russia would count on the USA forcing Poland to negotiate with Russia or Belarus, rather than respond with force, instead of opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers.
The cessation of Western support for Ukraine could even become Russia's main demand in such negotiations in exchange for the withdrawal of troops from Poland.
A ground attack by Russia could be organized either from Kaliningrad or from Belarus.
A representative of the Polish Ministry of Defense leadership confirmed to Onet the possibility of a Russian provocation but noted that Poland has already conducted exercises aimed at warning Moscow about a crushing NATO response.
Onet sources emphasized that any Russian provocation would not resemble a classic or conventional war, and that Moscow has not yet made a final decision on its execution.
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